Bitcoin DCA Calculator
Tactical DCA vs Fixed DCA vs Buy & Hold (2020 to 2026)
Enter a starting capital and see how each strategy would have performed across 6.2 years of Bitcoin market cycles, including the COVID crash, the 2021 bull run, the 2022 bear market, and the 2024 to 2025 recovery. All results come from a simulated historical backtest with realistic fee modeling.
Jan 2020 → Jun 2026 (6.42 years, full backtest)
Regime Vault
$95.9K
+858.7%
Fixed-Rate DCA (1%/week)
$42.6K
+326.3%
Rebalance 50/50
$45.0K
+349.8%
Buy & Hold BTC
$88.9K
+789.3%
| Strategy | Start | End | Return | Max DD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Regime Vault | $10.0K | $95.9K | +858.7% | 35.2% |
| Fixed-Rate DCA (1%/week) | $10.0K | $42.6K | +326.3% | 77.2% |
| Rebalance 50/50 | $10.0K | $45.0K | +349.8% | 48% |
| Buy & Hold BTC | $10.0K | $88.9K | +789.3% | 77.2% |
Results are based on backtested data (2020-01 to 2026-06). Includes ~3.5% APY Aave V3 yield on idle USDC (historical average). Ratios are independent of starting capital. Past performance does not guarantee future results.
How to read the results
The headline number, final value, is only half the story. Pay equal attention to the maximum drawdown: how far the strategy fell below its own peak along the way. Two strategies can end in a similar place while one spends years 70% underwater and the other never drops more than a third. Deep drawdowns are where investors capitulate and lock in losses, which is why risk-adjusted measures like the Calmar ratio (return per unit of drawdown) matter more than raw return.
The three strategies differ in one thing only: how they size Bitcoin purchases. Buy & hold goes all-in on day one. Fixed-rate DCA deploys the same 1% of capital every week, whatever the market does. Tactical (market-aware) DCA scales its weekly buying to the on-chain market regime: more in value zones, less in euphoria.
The limits of a backtest
These results are a simulation over one specific historical window, not live trading results. The regime model's parameters were calibrated on data that overlaps this period, fees and slippage are modeled rather than incurred, and a window that starts in 2020 begins near a cycle bottom, which flatters every strategy. History also never repeats exactly: a pattern that held for two cycles can fail on the third. Use the calculator to compare the shape of the strategies (return versus drawdown), not to project future values.
Frequently asked questions
Is DCA profitable for Bitcoin?
Historically, disciplined DCA into Bitcoin has been profitable over full market cycles, but the outcome depends entirely on the window: a DCA started at a cycle top can stay underwater for years. That is a historical observation, not a guarantee. Past performance does not predict future results.
What does this calculator assume?
All strategies are simulated on real 2020 to 2026 Bitcoin price history, net of fees: 0.5% annual management, 10% performance fee on a perpetual high-water mark, and ~0.1% trade execution cost. Idle USDC earns Aave V3 yield at its ~3.5% APY historical average. Fixed-rate DCA deploys 1% of capital per week.
Is this calculator financial advice?
No. It is an educational tool showing how three strategies would have performed in one specific historical window. It does not predict future performance and is not a recommendation to invest.
All performance figures are simulated historical backtests, not live results, and past performance does not guarantee future results. Nothing on this page is financial advice.
Ready to get started?
Deposit USDC into the Regime Vault vault on Base L2.