A tactical DCA vault that uses Bitcoin on-chain intelligence to optimize USDC returns.
Traditional dollar-cost averaging invests the same amount every week, completely ignoring market conditions. When Bitcoin is in euphoria at an all-time high, a fixed DCA buys at the same rate as when Bitcoin is in a deep value zone after a 70% crash.
This approach leaves significant alpha on the table. During the 2022 bear market, fixed DCA continued buying at the same pace as during the 2021 top, missing the opportunity to allocate more capital when on-chain fundamentals signaled extreme undervaluation.
Regime Vault corrects this by dynamically adjusting position sizing based on where we are in the Bitcoin cycle. The vault buys more aggressively when on-chain indicators signal value, and reduces exposure when they signal euphoria, all while measuring performance in USDC.
The model reads real Bitcoin on-chain behavior: how the network is valued, how holders are positioned, and where price sits relative to aggregate cost basis. It resolves this into a single market regime, from deep value to euphoria. Exposure follows the regime, not our mood.
The model itself stays proprietary: the signals it reads, how they are weighted, and the thresholds that separate regimes. That is the edge, and publishing it would erode it for everyone in the vault.
The regime model classifies the market into one of five zones. Each zone determines the vault's behavior for the week.
The strategy is steadily buying BTC at favorable valuations.
On-chain behavior signals extreme undervaluation relative to network fundamentals. Historically rare, only during major capitulation events like the COVID crash (March 2020) or the bear market bottom (mid-2022 to early 2023). The vault aggressively increases BTC exposure to capitalize on these rare windows.
The market is stabilizing after a decline. Long-term holders are accumulating while short-term sentiment remains cautious. The model detects improving fundamentals before price fully reflects them. The vault steadily increases its BTC position.
The most frequent zone. Nearly half of all weeks fall here. Neutral market conditions where no strong signal dominates. The vault continues disciplined dollar-cost averaging. This is the core of the strategy's robustness: consistent exposure growth that doesn't depend on extreme events.
Signs of overheating. Short-term holders are sitting on elevated unrealized profits, and valuation is stretched. The vault progressively reduces BTC exposure, rotating back into USDC to protect accumulated gains before potential corrections.
Market euphoria. Historically precedes major corrections, when on-chain behavior signals extreme overvaluation across the board. The vault aggressively preserves gains in USDC, which earns Aave yield while waiting for better entry points.
USDC not currently allocated to BTC earns yield through Aave V3 on Base, the largest decentralized lending protocol. This provides a baseline return even when the strategy is not actively trading. The yield compounds automatically and is reflected in the rvDCA share price.
Historical simulation across multiple BTC market cycles: 1 crash, 1 bear market, and 2 bull runs. Includes realistic fee modeling and ~3.5% APY Aave V3 yield on idle USDC (historical average).
| Strategy | Return | Max DD | Sharpe | Sortino | Calmar | vs Vault |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Regime Vault (net) | +858.7% | 35.2% | 1.26 | 2.23 | 1.20 | |
| Buy & Hold BTC | +789.3% | 77.2% | 0.86 | 1.30 | 0.53 | 2.3× |
| Fixed-Rate DCA (1%/week) | +326.3% | 77.2% | 0.69 | 0.99 | 0.33 | 3.7× |
| Rebalance 50/50 | +349.8% | 48% | 0.92 | 1.38 | 0.55 | 2.2× |
Period: 2020-01 to 2026-06 (6.42 years). Vault figures are net of all fees (0.1% per trade, 0.5% annual management, 10% performance on a perpetual high-water mark). Aave V3 yield on idle USDC (~3.5% APY historical average).
Extending the backtest to the full available BTC history (from 2017-08, limited by on-chain OHLCV depth) adds a whole extra market cycle. The strategy holds up: net of all fees it returns +1,578.3% versus +1,381.2% for passive buy-and-hold, at a materially shallower drawdown (64.2% vs 83.9%).
+1,578.3%
Net return
64.2%
Max drawdown
1.01
Sharpe
1.38
Sortino
Headline figures above use the standard 2020 to 2026 window for cross-site consistency; this panel shows the deeper 2017-08 to 2026-06 run purely as a robustness check.
Past backtested performance does not guarantee future results.
Simple, permanent fee structure. No hidden costs, no lock-ups.
0.5%
Management fee (annual)
10%
Performance fee (HWM)
Performance fees are only charged on new profits above the previous high water mark, and that mark never resets. If the vault is down from a prior peak, you pay no performance fee until it recovers and makes you net new money. No performance, no fee. Trade execution costs are ~0.1% slippage per rebalance via CowSwap. These terms are permanent.